How much does Big Data and AI expertise in one domain provides an advantage in another? I could easily see two companies dominating self-driving systems for autos (see smartphones). Would that give them an insurmountable advantage in taking over delivery logistics? How about (more) automated agricultural vehicles? In other words, do we get to what would be considered a stable, mature market with a couple of dominant players quicker than before or does the dominance span a much larger range of the economy?

My bigger worry with AI and Big Data is that it reduces the coupling of growth from employment and the need to hire and train people. It would seem this means that even if a technology creates net positive employment long-term, there may be an asymmetry in that losses occur far faster than replacement.

For example, what would be required to replace every taxi in the US with an automated service? According to Wikipedia there are 233,000 taxi cabs in the US (2012). At $50k each, that’s only $12B. Even if the total price tag is $50B multiple tech companies have that in cash. And with a first-mover advantage there is a huge incentive to quickly take over the market. What about trucking and deliveries after that? The economic advantages may generate new jobs, but how deep and wide is the pit before we get to parity?